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There's thousands of variables that need to align to succeed in search, it makes figuring out SEO ROI hella hard. It's a lot easier to estimate the value of a keyword to understand what an end goal might look like for you. Doing that can sometimes help rationalise a decision on investing in the channel.

I use a 'size of prize' calculation (coined by an ex boss of mine) to estimate keyword value and I thought it would be useful to make a 'size of prize' calculator to make it quick and accessible for anyone to do it!

So, using a bit of know how and the help of a wildly handsome and very talented developer, we've built a calculator that benchmarks against a click through rate model to spit out a solid indicator of monthly revenue that a single or set of keywords might return.

Here's how to use it:

1. Go grab your biggest commercial keyword that ranks on page one of Google
2. Look up the monthly search volume with keyword planner (or your favourite)
3. Search the keyword incognito to find the position you currently rank in
4. Jump in analytics and find your organic conversion rate for the last 6 months (try and filter out branded queries if possible)
5. While you're there, divide your revenue by transactions to get your average order value
6. Dump the numbers in the calculator below and click the button
7. Boom, there's the estimated monthly value of your keyword

Cool right? Ok, if the keyword you chose has the opportunity to climb the SERP a little more (lets say you currently rank in position 5) make a note of the current value from the calculator, then change the position up a few places for example, change the position from 5 to position 2 and note down the difference. Then multiply the difference by 12 for the annual increase in revenue you could feasibly achieve.

There's a pretty compelling goal for you right there with just one keyword 👌.

Here's an example

I'm using the term 'flowers'. A highly competitive keyword among online flower delivery companies. The search volume for 'flowers' is roughly 200,000 searches per month, and at position one with a conversion rate of 8% and an average order value of £25 the keyword is potentially worth £120,200 monthly 🤯:

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Extra: Grab a few big time keywords (maybe 4-5 of your biggest that rank on page one of Google), add together the search volume for each and get the mean average position across the set. Then do the same as above to work out the difference a few position could make to that set of keywords 🔥

Cool, but is it reliable?

The calculator gives you a really healthy steer to understand what you could invest in SEO for a decent return (if things go your way, remember no guarantees). Often and understandably, companies can't quantify how much or how little they should invest in the channel, this will give you some interesting stats to mull over 😉.

Here's the click through rate model used for calculating click percentage (rounded to the nearest whole number for simplicity):

• 1 = 30%
• 2 = 13%
• 3 = 9.5%
• 4 = 6.5%
• 5 = 5%
• 6 = 4%
• 7 = 3%
• 8 = 2.5%
• 9 = 2.2%
• 10 = 2%
• < 10 = 0.5%
• < 22 = 0.05%
• < 31 = 0%

Don't forget that the above are averages and the model will vary seasonally and be dependant on industry so take the end result with a big pinch of salt.

Useful? Useless? Make it better? Let me know.